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MECHANICS  of be SWITCHING ON of
the TRIGGER MECHANISM  of
LIMNOLOGICAL CATASTROPHES, happened in CAMEROON on lake "MONOUN" in 1984 and on lake "NYOS" in 1986., by the INFLUENCE of the ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATION in 1983.

02.06.2006

1

The Calculation with using the computer program "SONATA" has shown, that, trigger mechanism of the limnological catastrophes, who be happened in CAMEROON on lake "MONOUN" in 1984 and on lake "NYOS" in 1986 , was switched on by influence of the atmospheric precipitations in 1983.
The data of the monitoring of the monthly atmospheric precipitation in vicinities of the lakes "NYOS" and "MONOUN" per period with 1929 till 1988 are used in the calculation.
Limnological catastrophes on lake "MONOUN" in 1984 and on lake "NYOS" in 1986 , were caused by the instantaneous ejections of the gaseous carbon dioxide from the sediment stratums under the lake’s bottom.
The Degassing the waters of the lakes "NYOS" and "MONOUN" can not prevent from the repetition in lakes "NYOS" and "MONOUN" of the limnological catastrophes, similar to the catastrophes of 1984 and of 1986 , in which the trigger mechanism was switched on by the influence of the atmospheric precipitations.
Under influence of the atmospheric precipitation the trigger mechanism of the the limnological catastrophes in the lake "Nyos" and the "Monoun" , in any time may to be switched on and in a certain time hereon will happen of the limnological catastrophes.
As of the data of long times of the monitoring of the monthly atmospheric precipitations the program "SONATA" may do of the forecast of the gaseous ejections( of the instantaneous or of the slow , including catastrophical ) from the sediment stratums of the lakes "Nyos" and "Monoun".

The Catastrophical ejections of the gaseous carbon dioxide (CO2) in Cameroon (22) from lake "Nyos" (August 21 1986) and from lake "Monoun" (August 15 1984) have caused the mass ruin of the people and animal, as well as have endamaged to vegetation.

The Catastrophes in Cameroon on the lake "Nyos" and on the lake "Monoun" have distinctly shown the mortal danger of the sudden ejections from the terrestrial depths of the greater amount of the carbon dioxide on the surface of the land.
The Study of the reasons of the sudden ejections of the carbon dioxide particularly timely in connection with the influence of the carbon dioxide on the rates of the global warming, and in connection with the work to sequestration of the greater amount of the carbon dioxide in the depth geological structures (24).

There is other places on our planet (the lake "Kivu" in east Africa, lake "Mashu" in Japan, maar "Eifel" in Germany, lake "Pavin" in France, "Mammoth Mountain" in USA, some territory in Italy) (1,2,3,22), in which, according to result of this article, the ejections of the gaseous carbon dioxide and methane can cause the disastrous consequences.

The Catastrophes can be by the consequences of the leakage the carbon dioxide from underground geological formations, in which carbon dioxide injects on permanent (for instance, project Statoil CO2 injection at the Sleipner field) storage (4,23).

For the last twenty years (5,6,7,8), were studied physics -chemical processes in volume of the waters in the lakes "Nyos", "Monoun", "Kivu", was valued contribution of the mentioned processes in limnological catastrophes, and was declared the supposition about trigger mechanism of the limnological catastrophes.

The authors of the works (5, 22) holds the hypothesises , according which at the lake Monoun (and Nyos) gas burst originated by the release of huge amounts of pressurized carbon dioxide, previously dissolved in the lower layers of the lakes. As of the hypothesises, by the trigger mechanism are offered any exogenous disturbance (the collapses, winds, rain, earthquakes and others) or intrinsic instability (change to density, the temperature, acidity, saltiness and others) of the lake's water.

According to article (6), gas is formed on big depth in magma, then, near the Earth's surfaces, gas was dissolved into underground water.
Dissolved in underground water CO2, through the springs on bottom of the lake, was entered with underground water in the lake and are accumulated in the deep water.

According to the limnic eruption hypothesis (7), the carbon dioxide, with high concentrations, slowly was built up in the lake water column, but hereafter, a large part of the carbon dioxide was released after by a trigger mechanism was provoked of the local supersaturation.

Authors of the work (8) support the hypothesises of the limnic eruption for the lake "Kivu". They assumed, that the release of the gases (CO2, CH4), can be triggered by the magma eruption within the lake.

According to article (7), the exact nature of the trigger mechanism remains unknown.

As a whole, in study of the limnological catastrophes for the last twenty years prevails the study of the processes in volume of waters of the lakes "Nyos" and "Monoun".
In ditto time, slightly were studied contributions to limnological catastrophes of the processes outside of volume of lake's water, including:
the process the recharging the pressure aquifer by the water of the atmospheric origin,
the process the recharging of the water of the pressure aquifer by the carbon dioxide and methane of the magmatic origins,
the process of the flow of a part of the water solution of the carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) from the pressure aquifer to lake through sediment stratum, which situated under the lake bottom,
the process of the flow of the water solution of the carbon dioxide and methane under lake bottom in the sediment stratum.

Together with that, for reasonable interpretation of the facts, characterizing limnological catastrophes on lakes "Nyos" and "Monoun", side by side with estimation of the contribution of the processes, occurring in volume of lake's waters, necessary to do of the estimation of the contribution of the processes, which occurs outside of volume of waters the lakes "Nyos" and "Monoun".

Qualitative and quantitative description mechanics of switching on of the trigger mechanism disastrous gaseous ejections on lake "Nyos" and "Monoun" - a key to decision of the problems of the forecasting of the time and scale of the disastrous gaseous ejections , obligatory condition of the motivated choice of the measures of the reduction of the destructive consequence after disastrous gaseous ejections , provision of the hold-harmless of the greater amount of the carbon dioxide in the underground geological stratum.

Qualitative and quantitative description mechanics of switching on of the trigger mechanism of limnological catastrophes must give the simple logical explanation of the following phenomenon:

The disastrous gaseous ejections on lake "Nyos" and "Monoun" have occurred at the August 21 1986 and at August 15 1984, and had a no place in foreseeable past;
The disastrous gaseous ejections existed on lake "Nyos" and "Monoun", and had no a place at any other the lake, located in the same region;
The values of the concentrations of the carbon dioxide in the water solution on the bottom of the lake "Nyos" and on the bottom of the lake "Monoun" vastly differ;
The values of the concentrations of the carbon dioxide in the water solution, on the bottom of the lake "Nyos" and on the bottom of the lake "Monoun", all time continuously are changing.

The Lake "Nyos" and Lake "Monoun" are located in the maar craters, was formed several hundred years ago, after blast of the overheated lava appeared at contiguity with the underground water.
Located on opposite side of the mountain massif "Mount Oku" on distance 95 km one till other, the lake "Nyos" and the lake "Monoun" possess by the resemblance.